TL;DR

• Correlation tools help you see whether Bitcoin is moving with or against stocks, commodities, FX, or other crypto assets. Low (≈0) means little relationship; high (→1) means they move together.

• Volatility tools quantify how “fast” price is moving and are computed from rolling returns (30/60-day), annualized for 24/7 crypto. Periods of very low volatility often precede large moves.

• In/Out of the Money (Global and “Around Price”) maps on-chain cost bases into support/resistance; big clusters of holders near the current price can attract or cap moves.

• Historical In/Out of the Money shows how the share of profitable addresses has changed at similar price levels—useful for gauging momentum and “bagholder” pressure.

• Large Holders Netflow tracks whale/investor accumulation vs. distribution; spikes may signal positioning shifts.

• Exchange netflows: Tracks deposits and withdrawals from exchanges, giving insight into general market accumulation vs distribution trends.

Correlation: Is Bitcoin trading with macro—or on its own?

Correlation indicators, such as a Correlation Matrix and Historical Correlations track rolling 30-/60-day correlation coefficients between BTC and other markets (Nasdaq-100, S&P 500, DXY, gold, ETH, etc.). A value near 1 implies prices move together; 0 suggests little relationship; –1 means they move in opposite directions.

This is interesting to track, as when correlation to equities rises, Bitcoin’s behaves more like a macro asset (sensitive to rates/liquidity). However, When it falls toward zero or negative, BTC can decorrelate. The latter is often seen during extreme volatility from Bitcoin, such as during bull markets.

Looking at the data, Bitcoin recently experienced a lack of correlation and even a mild inverse correlation to the S&P 500, which coincided with its pullbacks in those periods. Currently the correlation with traditional financial markets is not very strong, but it is increasing. This indicates that we can expect a more significant sensitivity to macro conditions until Bitcoin has another uptick in volatility.

Volatility: Reading the “speed” of the market

Volatility indicators measure rolling 30- or 60-day annualized volatility from daily returns (365-day annualization for 24/7 crypto). This is relevant because low realized volatility often accompanies range-bound markets and can precede breakouts. Interestingly, Bitcoin volatility has been hovering around 20% for quite some time, and has been slowly trending down over the long term. In the short term, volatility has been stable and shows no indication of compression.

On-chain cost basis & “in/out of the money”: Where are the pressure points?

Now to dive into some crucial on-chain data. On-chain profit and loss can be a great indicator for both short and long-term direction. Indicators like the global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) aggregate all addresses by their on-chain average cost, clustering them into price bands. Large clusters in the money may reduce immediate sell pressure; large out of the money clusters can create overhead resistance as holders seek to break even. 

For Bitcoin, we currently see 95% of addresses in profit, which is a significant drop since reaching its latest all-time high of $121,000 in July. The data currently shows the majority of these holders who are in a loss bought in the 116k to 119k range, indicating that this level could provide notable resistance to any upward move, as these holders may look to sell to break even on their investment.

On the long-term trend side, you can also take the historical view of onchain addresses in profit for Bitcoin. This can support price analysis by analyzing how it has trended over time. Practically, you can use this tool to determine periods that Bitcoin typically spends with a high percentage of holders in or out of the money, which can support your strategy.

Ownership dynamics: Are whales adding or reducing?

Indicators showing the netflow of large holders highlight the accumulation spikes vs. distribution drops of Bitcoin whales over time. Sustained positive netflows into large holders can precede tightening circulating float and improved resilience on dips. The current data shows some very significant spikes in the last month. This pattern has been observed frequently in recent months, and often coincides with Bitcoin ETF accumulation and increases in Bitcoin price.

Cross-check. If a key resistance band from GIOM/IOMAP is being approached and large holders’ netflow turns positive, that confluence can strengthen a breakout thesis; negative netflow into a resistance shelf can warn of rejection risk. 

Analyzing on-chain Exchange flows

Similar to large holders, analyzing exchange flows can be beneficial for determining accumulation or distribution behavior. Significant withdrawals from exchanges can indicate broader accumulation behavior, often coinciding with early bull markets or local bottoms. 

In the past 7 days, we’ve seen two significant spikes in exchange outflows. The most recent one on the 5th of august, where over 4.52k Bitcoin was withdrawn from exchanges.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin’s setup looks increasingly constructive: correlations to equities are rising but remain modest, leaving room for crypto-native catalysts to drive price, while realized volatility sits near ~20%; a calm that often precedes strong directional moves. On-chain, ~95% of addresses are in profit with a clear 116–119k resistance shelf; a decisive push through that band could thin overhead supply and unlock momentum toward and beyond July’s 121k high. Large-holder netflow spikes suggest continued whale/ETF accumulation, adding resilience on dips and into resistance, and recent exchange outflows—including ~4.52k BTC on August 5—hint at tightening liquid supply. Taken together, the confluence of steady vol, whale accumulation, and shrinking exchange balances skews the risk/reward higher. Watch the 116–119k zone for confirmation of the next leg up.